We Are In A 'FOURTH TURNING,' What Does That Mean?
Published March 30, 2021 · 10:21 · 2,342,768 views
About This Video
Van Neistat explains the Fourth Turning, Strauss and Howe's theory that American history moves in roughly 80-year cycles, and uses it to place his own repair work inside a historical argument. The essay runs 10 minutes and 21 seconds and has been watched more than 2.3 million times, the most-viewed video on the channel. His brother handed him the book. It became his favorite kind of book, the kind he calls a mind blower.
The structure is simple. Each 80-year block, what the authors call a saeculum, holds four turnings of about 20 years: a High, an Awakening, an Unraveling, and a Crisis. Van walks the American version. The postwar High, when wealth was most evenly distributed and a gas-station job could buy a house, gave us Elvis, Little Richard, Hank Williams, the Ford Mustang and the Chevrolet Corvette. It ended on November 22, 1963, with the assassination of John F. Kennedy. The Awakening brought Martin Luther King and the civil rights movement, Vietnam and the protests against it, Stonewall, and the first Macintosh, and it closed with Ronald Reagan's 1984 reelection. The Unraveling ran from there to the financial crisis of 2008.
Then the part that does the real work. Each generation embodies an archetype that pushes society toward the next High. Boomers are prophets, which is why Bill Gates and Steve Jobs both predicted a computer in every home and Gates flagged a pandemic five years early. Gen X is the nomad generation, and Van's example is Elon Musk, who builds things that move us from one place to another. Millennials, raised during the Unraveling, become the hero generation, the Parkland students and the frontline workers and Malala Yousafzai. Gen Z, born into the crisis, will be the artist generation, the next Bob Dylan or Toni Morrison or Bill Withers.
The payoff is personal. Van's cohort, Gen X, is the repair generation, the one stuck cleaning up the debris and fixing the messes left by others. He calls himself the last of the analogs, the last pre-digital generation, and he happens to have a knack for repair. The video ends not with a thesis but with an errand. The zip line at the community center playground has been broken for over a year, and he has the tools. That move, collapsing a 10-minute argument about the sweep of American history into one broken zip line, is the whole channel in miniature.
What Van Uses: The Fourth Turning by William Strauss and Neil Howe, the 1997 book that frames the entire essay and sits among the books Van references most often. The cultural markers he cites as era stamps, from the Ford Mustang and Chevrolet Corvette to the first Macintosh, do the dating work no calendar could.
Related: The Fourth Turning, Fixing the Zip-Line Without Permission, Van Neistat's Tool Kits
FAQ
What is the Fourth Turning theory?
Strauss and Howe argue American history runs in 80-year cycles called saecula, each split into four 20-year turnings: a High, an Awakening, an Unraveling, and a Crisis. We are in a Crisis now. The pattern has held across the Revolutionary War, the Civil War, and the Depression and World War II.
What generation does Van Neistat call the repair generation?
Gen X. In the Fourth Turning framework Van uses, Gen X is the nomad archetype, the cohort tasked with fixing the messes and clearing the debris left by others. Van calls himself the last of the analogs and ties his own knack for repair to that generational role.
Who wrote The Fourth Turning?
William Strauss and Neil Howe, published in 1997 during the previous Unraveling. The book predicted a crisis arriving on roughly the schedule Van describes, which is part of why he treats it as a serious framework rather than a curiosity.
Transcript
this spirited man had been expecting this crisis maybe not a global pandemic per se but he knew something was coming for a decade this spirited man had been reading books trying to figure out what the hell was going on his brother a spirited man himself told him to read this book the fourth turning this book turned out to be the spirited man's favorite kind of book a mind blower a book about how and when history repeats itself
and this is what the book said history repeats itself in 80-year blocks called saculum but we'll just call them history blocks not exactly 80 years this is history not math but roughly the span of a human lifetime maybe 80 to 90 years within these 80-year history blocks we have four turnings of around 20 years each we usually call them generations this book calls them turnings turnings are sort of like seasons like spring summer fall winter throughout our history we've had these 80-year blocks and the 80-year blocks have been remarkably similar to each other we're in one now the first turning the first season is a high an upbeat era the second turning is an awakening a passionate era
the third turning is an unraveling a downcast era in the fourth turning well sorry but fourth turnings suck the fourth turning is a crisis an era of upheaval we're in a fourth turning right now so let's take a look at our seculum our history block the history block that we're in the crisis of right now our high began after our world war ii victory by our we mean americas these are america's history blocks and turnings during a high the getting is good we had the most even distribution of wealth during our high you could work at a gas station and afford to buy a house this high is the period that the maga hats refer to we got hank williams and elvis and little richard and the birth of rock and roll we launched monkeys and men into space this is when the mustangs and corvettes first came out our high ended
with the assassination of john f kennedy on november 22 1963. the high is not a high for everyone of course america still had a segregated south homosexuality was illegal and considered a mental disorder the high is a period of conformity the age of non-conformity and of social justice begins during the awakening our passionate era during the awakening we had martin luther king in the civil rights movement acid vietnam protests and vietnam itself the women's liberation movement stonewall and the gay rights movement great movies great music this is when the first macintosh computer came out the awakening is a time of increasing individualism this second turning this awakening ended with the re-election of ronald reagan in 1984. things get messy during the third turning during the unraveling we got the fall of soviet communism in
the beginning of the russian gangster state the greatest musicians of the time sang about violence and decay in their deteriorating cities the la riots oj the bombing of bosnia in the columbine high school shootings on the same day september 11th the wars in afghanistan and iraq our unraveling ended with the financial crisis of 2008. a fascinating fact about this book is that it was written during the last third turning published in 1997 but the book predicts now what's happening now in this fourth turning and what's happening now is right on schedule [Music] 80 years ago in the last fourth turning america had her great depression than world war ii 80 years before that the civil war 80 years before that the revolutionary war
now it's our turn to save the country so where do you fit into all this what's your role it depends when you were born each generation each cohort tends to embody a specific archetype an archetype that will move the society towards the next high each generation's archetype is the characteristic that will define the generation in its prime in midlife the boomer archetype is the prophet bill gates and steve jobs are boomers and prophets both predicted that one day everyone not just big corporations and governments would own a computer gates even predicted a crisis like covid19 five years beforehand the writers of this book are boomers and prophets gen x is the nomad generation the quintessential gen xer elon musk
builds things that move us from one place to another rockets electric cars hyperloops nomadic devices but the millennials raised during the unraveling will emerge as the hero generation during this crisis these are the parkland high students the frontline hospital workers in malala yushof's eye the book says millennials will be the world war ii heroes of our history block we don't know what gen z will do but they will be an artist generation from them we'll emerge the next bill withers tony morrison or bob dylan all born during the last crisis all from an artist generation the history block before ours ended with world war ii and began with the civil war 80 years
prior the history block before that ended with the civil war and began with the end of the revolutionary war 80 years prior every 80 years or so something big comes along and changes everything and now we're at the end of our history block right in the middle of our crisis we are in the process of changing our world again the authors of the fourth turning tell us that these crises are like forest fires unpleasant but necessary they clear the woods for new growth as we work towards our next high this crisis will tilt the playing field away from the old and towards the young they tell us but the victory is not guaranteed we will each of us need to rise to the occasion
during this crisis we will need to develop and fortify our virtues as we pursue a greener pasture [Music] our western society was built to foster the potential of each individual within it the aggregate effort of individuals keeps it going the spirited man wonders what is his role what verse must he contribute to help extinguish the crisis this spirited man is told that his cohort gen x is the repair generation the one stuck with fixing the messes and cleaning up the debris left by others cleaning fixing repair
this particular spirited man from the last pre-digital generation the last of the analogs just happens to have a particular knack for repair and for fixing perhaps his nomad generation is tasked with ferrying his society from one sacrum from one history block to another but where does he start well the zip line at the community center playground has been broken for over a year and this particular spirited man happens to have the tools to fix it
Products & Tools Mentioned
- Macintosh (Apple) mentions
- Mustang (Ford) mentions
- Corvette (Chevrolet) mentions
People Referenced
Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Elon Musk, Malala Yousafzai, Hank Williams, Elvis, Little Richard, John F. Kennedy, Martin Luther King, Ronald Reagan, Bill Withers, Toni Morrison, Bob Dylan
Books Mentioned
- The Fourth Turning