Pre-WORLD WAR 2 vs. NOW
Published September 19, 2023 · 14:38 · 130,194 views
About This Video
The third and most historically ambitious of Van's Fourth Turning videos, this episode maps the pre-World War II crisis era onto the present with granular precision. Where the original video introduced Strauss and Howe's generational theory and the sequel explored its darkest predictions, this installment does the structural work: catalysts, regeneracy phases, consolidation, climax, and resolution: each stage illustrated with historical parallels that make the pattern feel less like theory and more like weather.
Neil Howe's 2023 book The Fourth Turning Is Here provides the updated framework, but Van's contribution is the filmmaking. He translates academic periodization into visual argument: the kind of historical reasoning that usually lives in university lectures but here reaches an audience of 130,000 through YouTube's algorithm. The video doesn't predict what happens next so much as establish the vocabulary for recognizing it when it does.
Transcript
our rain's going to fall means something's going to happen at about the midpoint of the fourth turning is here the author Maps
our crisis in relation to historical forth turning patterns the book is called the fourth turning is here what
the seasons of History tell us about how and when this crisis will end and here we have two timelines the
timeline of our previous fourth turning the World War II crisis and of our current millenial crisis as we fill in
these timelines we get an idea of where we currently are in our crisis and get an idea of what may be coming based on
the pattern of our previous history [Music] blocks a fourth turning is preceded by a precursor that occurs towards the end of
the previous third turning the precursor event shows that while our society may be unraveling we still have the kutah to
meet a national challenge the precursor to the World War II crisis was the US involvement in World War
I the country was against it but once we went in the country supported it the precursor to our Millennial crisis was
the 911 attacks and our subsequent involvement in the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars according to the book a precursor
briefly foreshadows the mood of the coming crisis era by showing how a society aware of its own weakening Civic
instincts can still Galvanize and rise up to meet a new challenge a catalyst is an event that marks the beginning of the fourth
turning the Catalyst puts us in crisis mode we see the Catalyst coming but we don't prevent it when the Catalyst
arrives we fall into a mood of pessimism and paralysis the Catalyst that began the World War II crisis era was the 1929
stock market crash the Great Depression followed the Catalyst that began our crisis was the 2008 financial crisis
[Music] during a regeneracomsports before the US entered World War [Music] II it was during FDR's inaugural address
when he said the only thing we have to fear is fear itself he was talking about the Great Depression not World War II
folks elected him because he said he would end the Depression FDR was way less informed about economics than his opponent
Herbert Hoover but the electorate elected FDR anyway because they were sick of Hoover in the Great Depression
that Hoover presided over the electorate was pissed off and they wanted the depression to end FDR said he would wage
a war against the depression as if it were an invading foe his election and inauguration speech regenerated a sort ort of team spirit
that had been missing from the country during the Roaring 20s The Roaring 20s were a third turning era of increasing
individuality a regeneracomsports each with their own ideas about how to overcome the crisis at hand our
Millennial crisis regener was the 2016 presidential election Donald Trump versus Hillary Clinton both sides were
pissed off about the way things were going in the years after the great financial crisis of 2008 both sides
hated their opposing presidential candidate Donald Trump supporters hated Hillary Clinton Hillary Clinton's
supporters hated Donald Trump each of the two factions began to regenerate a sense of unity that had unraveled during
the highly individualistic days of the booming 9s and early 2000s when I was growing up in the 1990s young people almost never talked
about politics or political issues and since the 2016 election it feels almost as if we Americans are at war with folks
whose politics differ from ours it seems as if there is nothing that can unite US during the previous first
regeneracomsports party gained popularity the industry vers labor battle seemed almost like a civil war we
workers have nothing in common with the employers we're in a class struggle in Minneapolis the teamer
strike effectively paralyzes the city and class war threatens as the Yale Club of Minneapolis leads an anti-labor March
in which two Strikers are killed in Georgia Governor Talmage sets up concentration camps for [Music] Strikers meanwhile actual war was
breaking out in Europe and Americans were further split on whether or not the US should get invol involved the second regeneracomsports
[Music] should prepare for war this preparation for War began to regenerate the sense of unity that had
split because of political disagreements and Industry versus labor battles we have not yet entered our
crisis's second regenacy we have not yet experienced our fourth turnings fall of France or Battle of Britain and obviously there's no
guarantee that we will experience a second regeneracomsports its final regeneracomsports most people who haven't yet chosen sides
must now choose leaders redirect every available institution toward a common goal during the World War II crisis our
consolidation event was the Japanese attack on our naval fleet at Pearl Harbor in Hawaii the United States declared war on
Japan the next day 3 days later the United States declared war on Germany all hands on deck and all in at the time
of the attack on Pearl Harbor the American Military consisted of less than half a million people after Pearl Harbor
and for the next 3 years the military grew by half a million people every two months all hands on deck and all
[Music] in we have not not yet experienced our consolidation we have not yet experienced this crisis's Pearl Harbor moment and to be
clear it's not guaranteed that we will experience a Pearl Harbor Event this book presents us with a historical
Theory not math the climax of a crisis determines whether the New Order will or will not Prevail against its enemies and
obstacles will we win the war the World War II crisis climax came in a trifecta of events beginning with
the Allied invasion of German held Normandy France AKA dday on June 6th 1944 then the battle of the Philippine
Sea two weeks later on June 19th and 20th 1944 in the battle of the Philippine Sea in 1944 Naval Air scored its greatest
triumph over Japanese carrier aircraft now remembered as the Mariana's turkey shoot Navy Gunners on ship and in
the air and in the space of one day shot down 400 attacking enemy planes Japanese Naval Air was ruined the
US fifth Fleet defeated Japan's carrier-based Air Force and the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki
ended the war with grave certainty we have not yet experienced our crisises D-Day Battle of the Philippine Sea or Hiroshima Nagasaki
bombings nor is it inevitable that we will during a crisis resolution a clear Victor emerges Victors are rewarded and enemies
punished Nations or Empires are forged or destroyed treaties are signed and boundaries redrawn peace is accepted
troops repatriated and ordinary life begins a new one large chapter of History ends and another starts in a very real sense
one Society dies and another is born after the World War II crisis the United States emerged as the world's preeminent
power we got the United Nations and the World Bank there is no guarantee that the United States will emerge Victorious
from our current crisis but I've got my money on her after the World War II crisis resolution began the post-war
High our history blocks first turning rock and roll in Corvettes lots of uh home movie cameras too in America's first crisis she fought
for her independence against a global power and founded a new nation in America's second crisis she fought to
keep the nation together and in doing so freed her slaves in America's third crisis she saved her citizens from
impoverishment helped free western Europe and secured a system of global trade with her allies becoming the most
powerful superpower in human history and in America's fourth fourth turning perhaps she's [Music] here e
People Referenced
Neil Howe, FDR, Herbert Hoover, Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton
Books Mentioned
- The Fourth Turning Is Here
- The Fourth Turning